The USDTRY bounced on Monday after repeated failure to break below the base of rising daily cloud (currently at 3.7530).
Another strong support lies in this zone – Fibo 38.2% of 3.8883/3.9814 rally and reinforces cloud base support.
Today’s rally retraced the biggest part of Thu/Fri fall from 3.8056 to 3.7446 and probes above 20SMA (3.7885), sustained break of which would generate bullish signal for stronger recovery.
Today’s rally retraced the biggest part of Thu/Fri fall from 3.8056 to 3.7446 and probes above 20SMA (3.7885), sustained break of which would generate bullish signal for stronger recovery.
Close above next pivots at 3.8065/56 (double upside rejection) and 3.8138 (daily Kijun-sen) is needed to confirm scenario.
Overall structure is bearish and current move seen as correction before broader bears resume.
While recovery stays capped under daily Kijun-sen, increased downside risk could be expected.
Otherwise, stronger correction would sideline immediate bears and open way for recovery extension towards 3.84 zone (sideways-moving 55SMA).

Res: 3.8000; 3.8065; 3.8138; 3.8272
Sup: 3.7885; 3.7684; 3.7530; 3.7457