Technical Outlook for Majors 30/08/2016

Technical Outlook for Majors 30/08/2016

EURUSD
Near-term price action attempts again through cracked daily cloud top / daily Kijun-sen line at 1.1167/62 which contained Monday’s dip. Overall structure is weakening as daily 20 & 30 SMA’s turned into bearish mode and momentum is heading south and currently standing at the midline.
Firm break below daily cloud top / Kijun-sen is needed to spark fresh bearish acceleration towards next key support at 1.1112 (daily Ichimoku cloud base, reinforced by 200SMA).
Highs of today / Monday at 1.1192/1.1206, mark initial resistance, ahead of 1.1224 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1339/1.1153 fall, reinforced by thick hourly cloud), which is expected to cap extended rallies.
Res: 1.1192; 1.1206; 1.1224; 1.1243
Sup: 1.1153; 1.1112; 1.1069; 1.1045

eurusd-30.08

 
GBPUSD

The pair retested Monday’s one-week low at 1.3057, after initial recovery attempts were capped by broken daily Kijun-sen line at 1.3116. Near-term technical are negative, while prevailing tone of daily studies is bearish and favors further easing. Initial target lies at 1.3022 (19 Aug trough / Fibo 61.8% of 1.2864/1.3277 upleg), ahead of psychological 1.3000 support.
Near-term price action may spend some more time within 1.3057/1.3116 congestion before bears resume.
However, sustained break above 1.3116 would trigger stronger correction of the fall from 1.3277 to 1.3057, on formation of hourly double-bottom at 1.3057.
Next barriers lay at 1.3141 (Fibo 38.2% retracement) and 1.3167 (25 Aug former low / 50% retracement), where extended recovery rallies should be capped.
Only break above 1.3200 barrier (near Fibo 61.8%) would neutralize near-term bears.
Res: 1.3116; 1.3141; 1.3167; 1.3200
Sup: 1.3057; 1.3022; 1.3000; 1.2961
gbpusd-30.08

USDJPY

The pair posted marginally higher high at 102.42, and cracked falling 30 SMA at 102.37, on fresh strength from 101.73, Asian low, posted on corrective pullback from Monday’s high.
Strong bulls on lower timeframes support final push towards key short-term barrier at 102.64 (08 Aug high), break of which would trigger fresh acceleration towards psychological 103.00 barrier, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line.
Initial support lies at 102.00 (Tuesday’s intraday low, ahead of session low at 101.73, reinforced by the top of thick hourly Ichimoku cloud which should contain any extended dips to keep near-term bulls intact.

Res: 102.64; 103.00; 103.50; 104.00
Sup: 102.00; 101.73; 101.48; 101.00

usdjpy-30.08

AUDUSD
Aussie came under pressure on Tuesday after recovery attempts from Monday’s 0.7523 low were capped just under strong resistance at 0.7586 ( Fibo 38.2% of 0.7690/0.7523 downleg / daily Kijun-sen line).
Bears prevail on near-term studies, while daily technicals are weakening and keeping the downside pressured. Near-term risk remains shifted towards strong support at 0.7523, where the top of thick daily Ichimoku cloud so far contained pullback from 0.7758 peak.
Eventual break below 0.7523 would open 100SMA at 0.7496 and possibly look for full retracement of 0.7419/0.7558 upleg.
Only sustained break above daily Kijun-sen line would sideline downside risk and signal stronger correction.
Res: 0.7625; 0.7589; 0.7626; 0.7650
Sup: 0.7523; 0.7500; 0.7441; 0.7419

audusd-30.08

WTI Crude Oil

Resumes lower on Monday and holding in daily Ichimoku cloud, after Friday’s long-legged Doji. Friday’s spike to 48.44 (just above near-term congestion top at 48.30) and subsequent weakness, signaled failure at the upper boundary, keeping the downside vulnerable.
Key near-term supports lay at 46.40/20 (higher base / Fibo 38.2% of 41.09/49.37 ascend, reinforced by the base of descending daily cloud), violation of which would trigger an extension of corrective pullback from 49.34 (19 Aug peak) towards 45.22 50% retracement) and 44.24 (Fibo 61.8% / daily Kijun-sen).
Near-term studies are in negative / neutral mode, with prolonged consolidation expected while 46.40 trigger holds.
Daily cloud top at 47.69, reinforced by broken daily Tenkan-sen line, marks strong barrier ahead of near-term range top breakpoint.

Res: 47.26; 47.69; 48.44; 48.92
Sup: 46.77; 46.40; 46.20; 45.22, Daily Market Outlook