EURUSD

Near-term risk turned lower and pressures 55SMA support at 1.0600, following Friday’s strong close in red after repeated upside rejection at 1.0675 zone, where daily Kijun-sen capped. Falling 10SMA (currently at 1.0633) is expected to cap consolidation above 1.0600 handle, before bears resume. Clearing supports at 1.0600/1.0580 (55SMA/Fibo 61.8% of 1.0520/1.0678 upleg) would open way towards next key support at 1.0520 (15 Feb spike low/daily Ichimoku cloud base). To neutralize bear pressure, the price needs to break and close above 1.0675/86 barriers (30 /20 SMA’s).

Res: 1.0633; 1.0647; 1.0675; 1.0686

Sup: 1.0600; 1.0580; 1.0560; 1.0520

GBPUSD

Top of falling daily Ichimoku cloud is for now holding attempts through strong support zone between 1.2422 and 1.2404 (55/100 SMA’s/daily cloud top). Series of lower lows from 1.2580 (09 Feb high/recovery rejection), keep near-term bias at the downside, together with weakening daily studies that support negative scenario. Upticks are facing strong barrier, thick hourly cloud (spanned between 1.2451/91) that is expected to cap upside attempts. Clear break below 1.2400 is needed to signal fresh weakness towards 1.2345 (50% of 1.1986/1.2704 upleg/daily Kijun-sen), with 1.2282/60 ( daily cloud base/Fibo 61.8%) in extension. Conversely, sustained break above hourly cloud and 20 SMA (1.2514) would shift focus higher and expose upper pivots at 1.2550/80.

Res: 1.2433; 1.2463; 1.2480; 1.2508

Sup: 1.2404; 1.2386; 1.2345; 1.2282

USD/JPY

The pair is consolidating above 112.60 (low of strong three-day fall from 114.94 (15 Feb high).

Near-term action remains biased lower following strong upside rejection at 114.94 that left daily candle with long upper shadow and subsequent strong acceleration lower.

Near-term action is holding below bearishly aligned daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen lines (113.28 / 113.59) with the latter expected to cap extended upticks, ahead of fresh push lower.

We need to see clear break below cracked 112.86 support (Fibo 61.8% of 111.57/114.94 upleg) to confirm bearish stance.

Loss of 112.60 handle would open psychological 112.00 support and expose key support and near-term base at 111.60.

Conversely, break and close above daily Kijun-sen would sideline persisting downside risk, in favor of stronger correction of 114.94/112.60 downleg

Res: 113.28; 113.59; 113.77; 114.05
Sup: 112.60; 112.37; 112.00; 111.60

AUD/USD

The Aussie is trading around the mid-point of 0.7600/0.7700 congestion after quick reversal from fresh high at 0.7730 (posted on 16 Feb) signaled false break above range tops.

Pullback from 0.7730 was so far held by 10SMA (0.7658) but near-term risk is turning lower after slow stochastic formed bearish divergence pattern and reversed from overbought territory.

Next strong support, daily 20SMA (currently at 0.7626) that tracks the uptrend since early Jan) is in focus, with break here to generate stronger bearish signal.

Extension and close below consolidation range floor at 0.7600 would confirm reversal and open way for stronger correction of 0.7160/0.7730 rally.

Break back above 0.7700/30 is needed to neutralize downside threats and signal bullish continuation.

Res: 0.7688; 0.7700; 0.7730; 0.7755
Sup: 0.7658; 0.7626; 0.7600; 0.7584

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