Technical Outlook EURUSD 05.10.2017 – Updated

Technical Outlook EURUSD 05.10.2017 – Updated

EURUSD lower on stronger greenback; ECB minutes

The Euro slipped from the session high at 1.1778, after recovery attempts repeatedly stalled on approach to falling 10SMA which marks significant barrier.
Stronger dollar in mid-European session and release of ECB minutes helped bears to push the single currency lower.
Minutes showed that the ECB policymakers discussed various scenarios for extension of QE program into next year and also expressed concerns about Euro’s rise.
Policymakers need to decide about asset purchase program which expires at the end of the year, as main argument was about the size and duration of QE extension.
Two solutions were on the table: smaller QE cut with shorter duration or bigger reduction with longer duration.
Regarding the monetary policy, it should be highly accommodative under all scenarios.
Final decisions are likely to be made on ECB’s policy meeting on October 26.
The Euro stands at the back foot ahead of beginning of the US session and release of US Jobless Claims and Trade Balance data.
Fresh weakness surged below hourly cloud (1.1759/1.1738) but was so far unable to sustain losses below cloud base.
Bearish setup of daily techs favors further downside and renewed attack at 1.1720 pivot, break of which will be seen as bearish signal.
US data are also expected to impact performance of EURUSD pair.

Res:  1.1778; 1.1790; 1.1816; 1.1832
Sup:  1.1734; 1.1720; 1.1696; 1.1662