US CRUDE OIL

Bounce from last Friday’s low at $48.16 touched $50.00 barrier on Monday, in extension of last Friday’s strong recovery rally, but gains were so far capped by daily Tenkan-sen line.
Mixed technical studies on daily chart show no clear direction for now, despite recovery’s probe above 200SMA ($49.65).
Fresh pressure on oil price may come from increased US shale oil production which threatens to offset positive impact on OPEC’s decision to extend production cut for additional nine months.
Near-term price action is supported by 55SMA at $49.48, but needs to clearly break above 200SMA and psychological $50.00 barrier to signal further recovery and expose next pivot at $50.97 (100SMA).
Otherwise, downside is expected to remain vulnerable while the latter barriers hold, with break below 55SMA to increase downside risk for retest of key supports between $48.55 and $47.86, consisting of 20SMA and daily Kijun-sen.

Res: 50.00; 50.55; 50.97; 51.20
Sup: 49.48; 48.83; 48.16; 47.86