US CRUDE OIL

WTI oil is holding near $46 barrier on Thursday after sharp fall on Wednesday hit low at $44.51, but bounced quickly after report from American Petroleum Institute showed larger than expected drawdown in crude inventories (5.7 mln bls draw vs forecasted 1.6 mln barrels draw).
Wednesday’s close above $45.29 (cracked Fibo 38.2% level of $42.04/$47.30 upleg) eased growing downside pressure on formation of reversal pattern on daily chart.
However, risk of fresh weakness remains in play as near-term studies weakened on Wednesday’s fall. Recovery from $44.51 low needs break and close above $46.23 (Fibo 61.8% of $47.30/$44.51 pullback) to confirm reversal.
Today’s release of US EIA weekly crude stocks is in focus for fresh signal. Forecast is for 2.3 mln bls draw (compared to 0.11 mln bls build last week) which would further support oil prices on release at / above forecasted level.
Rising 10SMA underpins today’s action (currently at $45.18) followed by 20SMA ($44.80), close below which will be bearish.

Res: 45.91; 46.23; 46.64; 47.00
Sup: 45.18; 44.80; 44.51; 44.05