AUDUSD

AUDUSD – short-lived probe above 0.8000 after RBA suggests further consolidation

The pair eases from fresh session high at 0.8042, posted on rally after RBA, confirming 0.8000 zone (reinforced by falling weekly 200SMA) as very strong resistance, after several attempts above it failed.
RBA is not seen as strong market driver, with focus remaining on the US dollar performance which boosted the Aussie in recent weakness.
This suggests that the pair may spend more time in consolidation and even dip lower, on negative signal from daily RSI reversal from overbought territory.
Initial supports lay at 0.7970/61 (daily Tenkan-sen which turned sideways and 10SMA), break of which would expose key near-term support at 0.7877 (higher base / Fibo 38.2% of 0.7572/0.8065 upleg).
Sustained break here is needed to signal reversal.
Likely scenario is for extended sideways mode ahead of Friday’s key releases, RBA Monetary Policy Statement and US NFP data which are eyed for stronger direction signals.
Firm break above 0.8000 barrier would spark fresh extension of current wave C of five-wave cycle from 0.7535 towards its FE300% at 0.8114.

Res: 0.8000; 0.8042; 0.8065; 0.8114
Sup: 0.7961; 0.7936; 0.7900; 0.7877