The US dollar edged lower in early Friday’s trading, awaiting US Non-Farm payrolls data, which are due at the start of American session. Investors are looking for numbers for June, to see whether US jobs sector recovered from May’s sharp fall to 38K, the lowest level since Sep 2011.
June’s consensus at 175K forecast significant recovery, but traders remain cautious after negative surprise in May.
Yesterday’s ADP data that are usually used as an indication for NFP release, showed that private jobs rose more than expected in June, maintaining positive sentiment.

British pound continues to trade within near-term range, with downside remaining vulnerable, following yesterday’s short probe above 1.3000 barrier.
Fears of stronger impact on Brexit persist and keep investors alerted, as analysts forecast further weakness towards 1.20 support, as the Bank of England prepares to ease monetary policy, in attempts to reduce the impact of the Brexit move.

Persisting risk aversion mode keep Japanese yen supported, with overnight’s fresh strength, bringing yen near 110.18, low of 06 June and psychological 100.00 support.
US Crude oil was the top loser of Wednesday’s trading, falling around 5% after US weekly crude inventories draw missed forecasts. Crude inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels, lower than withdrawal many investors expected that resulted in sharp sell-off to two-month low at $44.88.
Oil price entered consolidation phase in early Friday’s trading, with technical studies being negative, as oil price lost some important technical supports.
However, focus is at today’s US NFP data which are seen as key market driver today.

Highlights of the day

Europe
European calendar is light for today, with Swiss Unemployment at 3.3% in June, coming below forecasted 3.5%, along with downward-revised May’s Unemployment at 3.3.

German trade surplus narrowed in May on 22.2B release, against 22.3B forecast and April’s 24.0B surplus.
America

US Non-Farm Payrolls data for June are key release today. Forecast at 175K is well below May’s shocking 38K release, showing strong optimism fo recovery of US jobs sectors.
US Unemployment is expected to tick higher in June, according to 4.8% forecast vs 4.7% in May.

Canada’s employment change is forecasted at 5.5K in June, against May’s 13.8K and signals fall in a number of employed people in the previous month.
Canada’s unemployment is forecasted to rise to 7.0% in June, from May’s 6.9%.
Data are due at 12:30 GMT.
Important levels
US Crude Oil
Oil price consolidates above fresh low at $44.88, following yesterday’s 5% fall that took strong technical supports at 45.80 and 45.40 zone out. Oil is also on track for strong bearish weekly close which would signal further easing. Below initial support at $44.88, next significant levels lay at $43.80 and $43.02, with pivotal support at $41.50.
Initial resistance lies at $45.80 / 46.15 zone, break of which may trigger stronger recovery towards $46.55 and $47.00.
EURUSD
The Euro showed no significant changes in past 24-hours, as price action stays capped by 200SMA at 1.1092, while near-term congestion lows at 1.1050 zone remain intact for now. The pair is awaiting US jobs data for fresh direction signals.
Overall structure remains bearish, with loss of 1.1050/00 handles needed to trigger fresh acceleration lower.
On the flip side, 200SMA marks initial resistance, ahead of 1.1167/85 pivots.
GBPUSD

Cable continues to move within near-term consolidation range, established above fresh 31-year low at 1.2795. Yesterday’s upside rejection above initial 1.3000 barrier, keeps the downside vulnerable of further weakness.
Initial support lies at 1.2876, followed by 1.2795, break of which would trigger stronger bearish acceleration.
Cracked 1.3000 barrier and yesterday’s high at 1.3045, marks initial resistance zone, above which, extended recovery towards 1.3118 and 1.3200 barriers could be expected.

Source: Reuters, Market Analysis