Another big day for the markets, as US monthly jobs data are to be released today after Bank of England surprised by larger than expected measures on Thursday.
The US dollar holds firm ahead of US payrolls data which are forecasted at 180K for July, following strong May-June 38K/287K oscillation.
Strong reading today could help to revive hopes that the Fed could raise interest rates by the end of the year, after such scenario had been sidelined after Brexit vote shocks. In addition, series of weak data from the US further dented the rate hike prospect.
However, the dollar has slightly recovered in the near term, despite weak US Q2 GDP data, released last Friday, turning focus towards today’s release of jobs data.
Bank of England surprised markets with stronger than expected measures on its August rate policy meeting on Thursday. As expected, the BoE cut rates by a 25 basis points to the record low at 0.25%, on its first rate cut since 2009, in attempts to reduce negative impacts on the UK economy, triggered by Brexit vote, as British economy stands on the brink of recession.
The surprise from BoE came on increase of government bond purchase by 60 billion pounds to the total of 435 billion pounds, in attempts to shore up the economy.

The greenback holds above high against Euro in early Friday’s trading, while staying tall against Sterling which slumped on Thursday after BoE’s rate decision.
The British pound was the top loser on Thursday, as stronger than expected BoE’s measures triggered pound’s strong sell-off. Sterling fell by 1.6% on Thursday, marking the biggest in a month.
British pound / US dollar pair consolidates above fresh low at 1.3097, with near-term focus shifted lower, as post-Brexit recovery attempts showed signals of stall.
The dollar/yen remains within narrow consolidation above fresh three-week low at 100.66, hit after bearish acceleration on BOJ monetary policy release earlier this week.
Australian dollar holds firm just under key barrier at 0.7673 against the US dollar, on extended bullish acceleration that emerged after RBA’s rate cut.
Highlights of the day

Asia
Australian central bank in its Monetary Policy Statement warned that inflation is likely to remain under the target in coming years. The central bank’s subdued inflation outlook comes just after the CB cut interest rates, suggesting further rate cut.
America
The first Friday of the month signals that it is time again for the US monthly jobs data that moves markets and promotes endless discussions on US rate hikes, or not. US employment outside of the farming sector is expected to show a monthly rise of 180K in payrolls, down from a 287,000 increase in June.
In all, growth has levelled off in employment in 2016 compared to the past few years, in spite of the firm report seen in June. This might suggest that there has been a slowdown in hiring and that the US economy is close to full employment.
Data are due at 12:30GMT.

Important levels

GBPUSD
Cable is in narrow consolidation above yesterday’s post-BoE’s fall that found ground at 1.3100 zone. Near-term focus has turned lower again and eyes strong support at 1.3055 daily base, ahead of psychological 1.3000 support. Further bearish acceleration would open next support at 1.2955 and re-focus post-Brexit low at 1.2795.
Initial resistance lies at 1.3135, followed by 1.3215 and 1.3250 pivot. The pair is awaiting US jobs data later today, for fresh signals.
EURUSD

The pair consolidates above fresh low at 1.1113, after two consecutive days in red. Mixed technicals still do not give clear picture whether the current move is the beginning of reversal, or just correction, with today’s US data likely to give more clues.
Yesterday’s low at 1.1113 marks immediate support, followed by series of strong supports at 1.1090 and 1.1075 zone, loss of which is needed to confirm bearish resumption.
At the upside, 1.1152 marks initial resistance, ahead of pivotal daily cloud base at 1.1167, above which, more upside action could be anticipated.

eases further on Thursday, extending pullback from recovery high at 1.1232, where 100SMA capped the action. Wednesday’s close in red gave bearish signal, as extended weakness tested good support at 1.1125 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.0950/1.1232 recovery), which acts as a pivot. Further bearish acceleration could extend to 1.1090 (50% retracement) and 1.1058 pivot (Fibo 61.8%).
Initial resistance lies at 1.1154, while firm break above 1.1200 barrier would sideline near-term bears.
USDJPY
The pair remains within narrow consolidation above fresh low at 100.66, showing no significant recovery attempts for now. The indecision is confirmed by yesterday’s Doji candle, as US jobs data are awaited for trading signals.
Immediate support lies at 101.00, followed by recent low at 100.66, break of which would open psychological 100.00 target and possibly look for extension towards post-Brexit low at 98.98.
Initial resistance lies at 101.65, followed by 101.96 and 102.81 pivot.
CRUDE OIL
US oil’s two-day recovery off fresh low at $39.24 cracked $42.00 barrier. The bounce, triggered by oversold conditions, eyes next pivot at $42.22, for stronger correction that could extend towards $43.00 zone.
Immediate support lies at $41.43, followed by more significant 200SMA at $40.83, loss of which would soften near-term outlook and expose yesterday’s low at $40.42 and psychological $40.00 support., Market Analysis