Market Outlook for 23rd June 2016

Market Outlook for 23rd June 2016

The D-day has come. Historical day for Great Britain and European Union, as Britons will decide today the future of their country in a vote on EU membership. This is the third nationwide referendum in UK history, with over 46 million people entitled to take part in the vote.

Referendum was called by UK Prime Minister Cameron, under pressure from ruling Conservative Party and increasingly powerful anti-EU party.
Anti EU block argument was Union’s laws and bureaucracy that slows British Economy, which could, according to them, rise at higher pace, if UK leaves European Union.

Short campaign was bitter and overshadowed by murder of British MP Jo Cox, with almost equal number of pro and anti-EU camps. The latest opinions, however, showed that Stay-camp had slight advantage just ahead of referendum.
Polling stations were opened at 07:00BST and will close at 22:00BST. The first referendum results are expected to come at 04:00BST on Friday, 24th June and onwards there should be pretty clear picture of which way the vote is going.

Market participants are preparing for high volatility, which is expected on either decision.
British pound stands below 1.4800 mark against the dollar, on Thursday’s early Europe trading, down from overnight’s peak at 1.4842, reached on the latest polls that showed rising numbers of Stay option.
Technicals remain bullish and support further advance, however, referendum results will be the main market driver.
Possible scenarios see Sterling shooting above 1.50 barrier, on win of pro-European Union block, while sharp fall towards 1.35 support zone could be expected if Britain votes to leave European Union.
US dollar is at the back foot in early Thursday’s trading, with dollar index standing ticks above strong support at $93.40 (June lows), after starting new day with gap-lower. The greenback holds weak tone against its major counterparts, as Britain referendum kicks.
Spot Gold touched fresh two-week low in early Thursday’s trading, maintaining cautious optimism that Britons would opt to stay in the EU that would push yellow metal’s price further down. Conversely, win of Brexit block would revive strong demand for safe-haven gold and push the price significantly higher.
Today’s highlights

Series of PMI data from European countries are highlight of today’s European session, while US weekly jobless claims (271K f/c vs 277K result of previous week) is the key release of American session.

All eyes will be turned towards UK, as the markets will be awaiting any signal that could indicate possible direction, ahead of release of final results.
Important levels

GBPUSD probed above 1.4800 barrier overnight, after gaining fresh bullish momentum on fundamentals. The pair maintains bullish sentiment on hopes Britain will vote to stay in EU. Corrective action so far holds above 1.4700 handle, which marks initial support and guards pivotal support zone at 1.4615/00.
Choppy trading is seen as likely scenario, before referendum results come out.

GOLD extended losses to $1259 (fresh two-week low) in early Thursday, driven by negative sentiment on hopes UK will vote to remain in UK. Fresh weakness found footstep at $1259, just ahead of strong supports at $1257/55 (daily Kijun-sen / daily cloud base), loss of which could spark further bearish acceleration.
Corrective attempts face initial resistance at $1272, ahead of strong barrier at $1280 and upper breakpoint at $1294., Market Analysis