Market Outlook for 21st June 2016

Market Outlook for 21st June 2016

The British Pound maintains fresh bullish sentiment and extended gains to fresh 3-week high against dollar on Tuesday, supported by growing ‘Bremain’ hopes. Two opinion polls showed on Monday that Remain camp has regained ground, as probability of Remain vote on Thursday’s referendum rose to 78%.
Cable peaked at 1.4743 in early European trading, after ending Monday’s trading in strong bullish mode and gaining 2.1%, which marks the biggest one-day gains in past eight years.
Strong volatility on pound, seen in past weeks, has reduced significantly, as investors see diminishing chances of Leave camp winning.

The Euro returned above 1.1300 handle after pullback from yesterday’s high at 1.1381 briefly probed below, holding positive near-term tone, on overall fresh positive sentiment on rising Bremain chances.
US dollar remains at the back foot, with dollar index holding ticks above two-week low and showing scope for further easing, as hopes of Britain remaining in the Union rise.

Japanese yen is regaining its safe-haven appeal and rose near key 103.54 high against dollar on Tuesday, after recovery action stalled. Japanese Fin Min Aso said on Tuesday that Japan will respond to rapid currency rise, in line with G7 / G20 agreements.
The dollar rose against yen in late Asian / early European trading, returning above 104 handle. However, dollar-yen may spend some time in directionless mode, while boundaries of fresh near-term range stay intact.

Gold remains under pressure and holds below $1300 barrier, as fresh polls showed rising number of Bremain scenario supporters that lowers global uncertainty and diminishes gold’s safe haven appeal.
Rise of Asian Stocks on lower Brexit fears also pressured gold’s price, which is seen falling further is positive sentiment ahead of referendum persists.
Crude oil prices eased on Tuesday for the first time after strong two-day rally. US oil peaked ticks away from psychological $50 barrier on Monday, as strong two-day rally was backed by easing fears tha Britain would leave the European Union.
Near-term technicals turned positive and support further recovery, which is expected to be gradual, according to a number of analysts.
Investors are now turning their focus towards other factors that influence oil prices, such as production and demand, as immediate Brexit fears eased.
Today’s highlights

Highlight of the European session are ZEW economic sentiments from Germany and EU. Forecasts for June show lower numbers compared to May’s releases. German June ZEW data are forecasted at 4.7 vs 6.4 in May, while EU’s forecast is at 15.3 vs 16.8 in May.
Data are due at 09:00 GMT.

Two very important speakers are the highlight of American session. ECB’s President Draghi is due to speak at 13:00 GMT, while Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen is going to start two-day testimony to US lawmakers. The speech comes in less than a week after Fed kep interest rates unchanged and lowered its projections for rate hikes for coming two years.

Important levels

GBPUSD eventually cracked the first of two strong barriers at 1.4737/68, on Tuesday’s fresh extension of strong rally of past three days. Reduced pressure on Brexit uncertainty, boost the pound. Sustained break above 1.4737/68 zone would spark fresh bullish acceleration towards next target. at 1.4880, with psychological 1.5000 barrier, expected to come in focus.
Initial support lies at 1.4640, followed by 1.4580 and 1.4550.

EURUSD is regaining strength after retesting strong 1.1300 support overnight. The price bounces from low of correction off yesterday’s peak at 1.1381, after failing to fill yesterday’s gap. This signals persisting bullish sentiment for renewed attempts higher. Break above 1.1381 to open key 1.1416 barrier.
Strong supports lay at 1.1300/1.1285 zone; followed by 1.1255 and 1.1225.

USDJPY bounced from strong 103.50 support zone which was retested overnight. Near-term price action holds within 103.50/104.80 range and break of either side is needed to signal an end of near-term congestion and point towards fresh direction.
Overall outlook remains bearish and sees increased risk of renewed attempts at 103.50 pivot.
Alternatively, sustained break above 105.00/105.30 resistance zone, would sideline immediate downside threats.

GOLD remains below $1300 handle, despite yesterday’s bullish close and daily candle with long tail that signaled rising buying interest ahead of strong $1276 support zone. Fresh easing on Tuesday from session low at $1294, turn focus towards $1276 pivot, loss of which would trigger stronger bearish acceleration, for further retracement of $1199/$1315 rally., Market Analysis