The US dollar consolidates off fresh lows in early Monday’s trading, after being hit by downbeat GDP data on Friday. US gross domestic product increased by disappointing 1.2% in Q2, against forecasted 2.6%. Weak GDP data and FOMC statement, released earlier in the week that did not leave any firm signal of possible rate hike in September, pressured the greenback and stopped its earlier advance, boosted by strong jobs data in June, improving inflation and retail sales data.
EURUSD consolidates under last Friday’s fresh 5-week high at 1.1195, when post-data rally dented strong barrier at 1.1185. Strong bullish signals were given on long daily and weekly bullish candles, as well as bullish monthly close that follow two months in red.
USDJPY remains under strong pressure, trading just above Friday’s 3-week low, hit on strong bearish acceleration on disappointing BOJ, which instead of increasing massive buying programme of government bonds and take already negative interest rates lower, opted for increase of ETF. This prompted investors for heavy yen-buying, as they concluded that the policymakers are running out of options.
The dollar turns near-term focus towards US Non-Farm Payrolls data, due on Friday. Economists expect 175K jobs in July, down from June’s strong 287K rise, with unemployment rate expected to stay unchanged at 4.9%.
Antipodean currencies hold firm on Monday, supported by fresh dollar’s weakness. Kiwi dollar consolidates under Friday’s recovery high at 0.7227, while Aussie posted marginally higher high at 0.7613 in early Monday’s trading.
Australian central bank is due to deliver its monetary policy on Tuesday, with widely expected 0.25% rate cut from 1.75% to 1.50%.
Precious metals consolidate under fresh 3-week highs, posted on Friday, after disappointing US data put further pressure on US dollar. Spot gold peaked at $1354 high on Friday, while Silver holds firm above broken $20 handle, following daily / weekly close.
Crude oil price bounced from fresh multi-month low at $ 40.56 on Monday, after month-long decline of nearly $10. Investors are taking profit at the start of new month, with limited technical correction expected, as oil price remains under strong pressure on oversupply and weak global economy that lowers demand for oil.
Fresh weakness approached psychological $ 40 Support, with break lower expected to trigger further bearish acceleration.
Highlights of the day

Series of PMI data from Europe and the US are the key releases on Monday. Focus turns towards UK and US manufacturing data.
UK Manufacturing PMI is expected to stay unchanged at 49.1 in July, with data due at 08:30GMT.
US Manufacturing PMI is due at 14:00 with forecast for July at 53.0, compared to June’s 50.4.
Important levels

EURUSD
Holds firm under fresh high at 1.1195, with strong bullish daily / weekly close, giving strong bullish signals for further upside action.
Daily cloud base barrier at 1.1167 has been cracked, with sustained break higher, expected to extend towards 1.1245 and 1.1295 targets.
Corrective pullbacks on overbought studies could be expected, with good supports at 1.1140; 1.1100 and 1.1075.
USDJPY
The pair consolidates above Friday’s fresh low at 101.96, with strong bearish outlook being supported by bearish daily / weekly close, as well as monthly close in red. Focus turns towards psychological 100.00 support, retested on 08 July and post-Brexit low at 98.98, seen in extension.
Persisting downside pressure sees limited upside attempts, with initial resistance at 102.80, followed by 103.35 and strong 104.00 barrier.

GOLD
Remains supported and consolidate under fresh recovery high at $1354, as Friday’s action cracked important Fibo 61.8% of $1375/1310 barrier at $1350, where Friday’s trading ended. Further bullish extension could be anticipated, following strong bullish close on all larger timeframes. Next targets lay at $1359 and $1375, with extension towards $1387 not ruled out.
Immediate support lies at $1344, followed by $1338 and breakpoints at $1332/28., Market Analysis