Market Outlook for 13thJune 2016

Market Outlook for 13thJune 2016

Japanese yen was among top winners of the Asian session, surging to fresh 5-week high against the dollar and posting 3-year highs against Euro and Sterling on risk aversion ahead of key central bank meetings later in the week.
US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Swiss national Bank and Bank of Japan are going to meet this week, with general expectations of staying unchanged, on rising uncertainty ahead of Brexit referendum.

Brexit remains the key driver of the British Pound, which fell to 7-week low against the dollar at the beginning of the week, on extension of last Friday’s fall, when the pound lost around 1%. Latest vote showed rising number of Brexit supporters against the ‘Leave’ camp, which intensified pressure on Sterling.

Gold was another winner among safe-haven instruments, as bullish acceleration on Monday, moved the price to fresh nearly one-month high at $1284. Signals of delay in US rate hike, which was advertized as early as June, due to poor jobs numbers and growing uncertainty about the outcome of Brexit referendum, boosted demand for safe-haven instruments.
Oil price fell back below psychological $50 levels, extending descend of past two days in early Monday’s trading. Brent and WTI oil fell by 1.3% and 1.5% respectively against the latest settlement, coming under increased pressure economic concerns. Darkening Asian economic would lower demand for energies, which weighs on the oil price. Big investors cut their longs in the crude oil for the first time in a month, signaling rising concerns that oil price may not be sustained above $50 barrier for the time being.

Today’s highlights

Chinese data were the sole releases of the Asian session, on today’s short calendar. Industrial Production stayed unchanged at 6.0% in May, against forecasted 6.1%, while China’s Retail Sales ticked lower to 10.0% in May, from April’s 10.1% and identical forecast.
On the other side, growth in China’s fixed-asset investment dipped below 10% for the first time since 2000, signaling that economy is not on solid ground yet, which would revive views of increasing support measures.

Important levels

EURUSD posted fresh low at 1.1230 in early Monday trading, on extension strong fall of past two days that ended last week’s action in red. The pair consolidates ahead of strong support at 1.1217, loss of which would trigger fresh bearish acceleration towards next downside targets at 1.1135 and 1.1096.
Bearish technical studies support further weakness.
Initial resistance lies at 1.1270, followed by 1.1300/20 and first upside trigger at 1.1345.
GBPUSD hit fresh low at 1.4156, with narrow near-term consolidation being under way. Firm bearish tone of technical studies favors further bearish extension. Bear-leg that commenced from 1.4655 lower top, could travel to 1.4130, with 1.4088 seen in extension, ahead of key 1.4004 support. Renewed Brexit fears maintain strong pressure on Sterling.
Initial resistance lies at 1.4220, followed by 1.4267 and strong 1.4300 barrier.

USDJPY came ticks ahead of key short-term support at 105.53, on fresh bearish acceleration at the beginning of the week. The pair could fall further on sustained break below 105.50 support zone, with strong supports at 100.00 zone, expected to come in focus.
Meantime, consolidation above 105.53 breakpoint could be seen as likely near-term scenario. Initial resistance lies at 106.35, followed by 106.86 and 107.24 and key near-term barrier at 107.89.

Spot GOLD extends strong rally on Monday, after ending past week in strong bullish mode. Fresh one-month high was posted at $1284, as bulls eye next targets at $1288 and strong $1300 resistance zone, which are in near-term focus. Initial supports lay at $1272 and $1264, followed by $1256 and strong $1251 support., Market Analysis