Market Outlook for 13th July 2016

Market Outlook for 13th July 2016

The US dollar slipped against Japanese yen on Wednesday, after the pair hit fresh 2 ½ week in the past days and being the top performer. Rise in global stocks and renewed risk appetite, dimmed yen’s safe-haven appeal and pushed it to new low near 105.00 barrier against the dollar.
Yen’s recent weakness was also supported by investors’ expectations on fresh economic stimulus.
Dollar / yen eased in early Wednesday are trading, pulling back over 0.5% on a fall to session low at 103.96. The action was triggered by profit-taking on yen shorts.

British pound firmed in past few sessions and hit fresh recovery high vs dollar on Wednesday at 1.3352, as more political clarity emerges in Britain, on signals that interior minister Theresa May is likely to take the job of British Prime Minister. This calmed investors, unnerved by Brexit and subsequent political and economical turmoil.
However, this week is very important for sterling, as Bank of England is widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday’s meeting, in order to protect the economy further impacts after Brexit vote.
The Euro came under pressure again after Tuesday’s rally failed to sustain break above important 1.1100 barrier. The single currency remains vulnerable to the downside on negative near-term technicals and overall bearish outlook.
Gold received fresh support and bounced from correction low at $1327, hit on strong two-day pullback, as political uncertainty in Britain eases.
Spot gold suffered the biggest fall in seven weeks, on Monday / Tuesday’s pullback from fresh 28-month high at $1375, but maintains strong overall bullish stance, which was boosted by global turmoil, triggered by Britain’s vote to exit European Union.
US Crude oil trades below recovery peak at $46.91 in early Wednesday’s trading, following strong bounce on Tuesday, when oil price gained about 5% on rally from fresh two-month low at $44.41.
Oil’s rally was boosted by forecasts from US government and OPEC that demand would increase next year.
However, overall near-term downside pressure was maintained by industry data that showed build in US crude stocks and stronger dollar.
Highlights of the day

Europe
The new British Prime Minister takes over and the current PM, David Cameron, will appear for his last ever Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons and will then head to Buckingham Palace to recommend to the Queen that Theresa May succeeds him.
Eurozone’s Industrial Production is expected to fall, according to the forecast at -0.8% in May, vs April’s 1.1% rise. Also, EU’s IP is seen lower on y/y, according to forecasted 1.4% against April’s 2.0%.
America

Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision is the highlight of American session. The BOC is expected to stay unchanged at 0.5% in July’s meeting, after rates were cut from 0.75% last year.
The central bank is expected to maintain dovish stance, as the economy is struggling to sustain positive momentum.
Release is due at 14:00 GMT.
US EIA Crude Oil Inventories are due at 14:30 GMT, with forecast for 2.3 million barrels draw in the past week, compared to 2.2 million barrels draw in the previous week.
Important levels

GBPUSD

Cable made strong bullish close on Tuesday, signaling further recovery, as the pair bounced from dangerous zone that was hit on post-referendum sharp fall.
Fresh bullish extension above important 1.3250 barrier, peaked at 1.3352 so far, showing retracement of over 61.8% of recent downleg from 1.3531 peak.
Next resistance lies at 1.3357, break of which would open way towards 1.3481 and key 1.3531 barrier.
First support is at 1.3220, followed by 1.3150 and 1.3100.
USDJPY
The pair pulls back from fresh recovery high at 104.97, following strong two-day rally from 100 support zone. Sentiment remains bullish for possible final extension towards key 106.78 barrier.
Corrective dips would face initial support at 103.80, followed by 103.00 and 102.45 pivot.
GOLD
Bounces off fresh correction low at $1327, following strong two-day fall. Immediate barrier and pivot lies at $1345, break of which would trigger extension towards $1350 and next pivot at $1356.
Immediate support lies at $1335, ahead of strong $1327 support, loss of which would trigger fresh bearish acceleration towards $1320 and $1312., Market Analysis