Commodities 10.01.2017

Commodities 10.01.2017

US CRUDE OIL

Yesterday’s long red candle weighs on near-term structure as bearish acceleration probed below the first pivot at $52.10 (n/t congestion floor). Bears found footstep at $51.75 (Fibo 61.8% of $49.60/$55.22 upleg), above which the price is expected to consolidate ahead of fresh attempts lower. Bearish near-term studies support the notion, with break below $51.75, to open $51.09 (15 Dec low), then next triggers at $50.53/00 (Fibo 38.2% of larger $42.94/$55.22 rally/psychological support), loss of which is needed to confirm reversal. Broken daily Kijun-sen ($52.41) caps for now, with extended upticks expected to hold below Fibo barrier at $53.33. Only acceleration above daily Tenkan-sen at $53.48 would neutralize downside threats and turn focus higher.

Res: 52.41; 52.72; 53.33; 53.48

Sup: 51.75; 51.09; 50.53; 50.00

oil-10-01

GOLD

Gold hit important barrier at $1187 (Fibo 38.2% of $1291/$1122 descend) on fresh upside attempt after consolidating between $1170 and $1185 range during past two days.

Bullish near-term studies and multiple bull-crosses of daily 5; 10; 20 & 30 MA’s support further upside, with sustained break above $1187 required to trigger fresh bullish acceleration.

Next barriers lay at $1197 (28 Nov lower top) and psychological $1200 barrier, reinforced by falling 55SMA.

Session low/hourly higher base at $1180 offers initial support, ahead of ascending 5SMAthat tracks the ascend and offers good support at $1175, which should contain corrective dips.

Downside pivot lies at $1170 (06 /09 Jan higher base) and break here would soften near-term structure for stronger pullback.

Res: 1187; 1194; 1197; 1200
Sup: 1180; 1175; 1170; 1162

gold-10-01, Market Analysis